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Source: Baker Hughes

BP Energy Outlook 2040- oil

Energy Transition through three different lenses: sector, region and fuels

  • In the ET scenario:global energy demand grows significantly slower than in the previous 25 years. The industrial sector accounting for around half of the overall increase. Growth in transport demand is much slower than in the past, reflecting faster gains in vehicle efficiency.
  • By region, all of the growth in energy demand comes from fast-growing developing economies, driven by increasing prosperity. China, India and other emerging Asia account for around two-thirds of the growth in energy consumption
  • Natural gas grows much faster than either oil or coal. The energy mix by 2040 is the most diversified ever seen

China’s Energy needs are changing: slower demand growth and a shift towards lower carbon fuels

  • China’s energy mix changes significantly, driven by its shifting economic structure and its commitment to move to cleaner, lower carbon fuels.
  • In the ET scenario, slowing demand growth and the shift towards lower carbon fuels causes China’s carbon emissions from energy use to peak in the mid-2020s.



  • China’s coal intensity declines sharply, with its overall coal consumption falling, more than offset by a large rise in renewable energy. Indeed, the largest growth of any energy source at a regional level is the increase in renewables in China.

The US extends its lead in oil and gas production but share of global trade remains small


  • US remains the world’s largest consumer of gas and second-largest consumer of oil. As such, in the ET scenario, its net exports account for only a relatively small share of overall world trade. In 2040, the US exports 360 Mtoe of oil and gas combined, equivalent to only around 9% of global trade in oil and gas in 2016, and less than half that of Russia (780 Mtoe in 2040) – the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas.




Source from BP Energy Outlook 2018